Resources/Weekly Insights

Volume 14, Edition 36 | November 17 - November 23, 2025

Giving Thanks in 2025

Doug Walters, CFA

What are investors thankful for this year?Hint: it’s more than turkey and pumpkin pie. From resilient markets to surprising comebacks, see what made 2025 a year worth celebrating.

Contributed by Doug Walters, David Lemire, Max Berkovich, Matthew Johnson

Thanksgiving weekend is here, and—true to tradition—we’re pausing to celebrate what investors have to be thankful for. In a year that had its fair share of geopolitical challenges, a government shutdown, and market selloffs, a well-diversified diversified portfolio likely provided plenty of reasons for cheer. So, let’s give thanks!

Thank you, resilient equities… stocks have logged solid gains in 2025, with broad U.S. benchmarks up double‑digits year‑to‑date. We can debate current valuations, and at the same time, enjoy the benefits.
Thank you, international stocks… US equity returns were great, but their international peers were exceptional and stole the performance show.
Thank you, gold… you’ve been a standout diversifier again—hovering near historic highs after a 50%+ run so far this year. Protection asset, performance engine.
Thank you, market volatility… the early‑year sell‑off and sharp rebound reminded investors why market timing is a losing game and why disciplined, opportunistic rebalancing wins over emotion.
Thank you, Biotech stocks… after years of lagging, you’ve staged a comeback in 2025, rewarding patient investors and adding a dose of innovation to diversified portfolios.
Thank you, Momentum factor… recent weakness doesn’t change the fact that you’ve successfully captured durable trends this year, resulting in outperformance versus the broader market on the year.
Thank you, Federal Reserve*… two rate cuts (September and October) helped ease financial conditions helping to continue the equity rally. Don’t fight the Fed.
Thank you, fixed income… you delivered income and ballast while yields remained structurally higher than the 2010s. Bonds quietly did their job this year.
Thank you, artificial intelligence… beyond the buzz, AI is tangibly lifting investment and productivity—another tailwind for earnings and operational efficiency across industries.

But most of all…

Thank you to our clients and readers of Insights—we’re grateful to have you as part of our growing Strategic community. Keep the feedback coming; we love hearing from you.

*We’ll give a fine print thanks to inflation… you’ve been a thorn in the side for consumers, but you could have been a lot higher than 3% which would have made the Fed’s rate cut decision significantly harder.

-5.0%

Price decline of the average Thanksgiving dinner

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the price of an average turkey dinner is down around 5% compared to last year. Turkey and bread prices are the major drivers, partially offset by big increases in veggies.

Headline of the Week

Potential Pause in Rate Cuts Amid Mixed Signals

After two consecutive rate cuts in September and October, expectations for a December cut have faded. The better late than never jobs data showed stronger-than-expected hiring, although the unemployment rate ticked higher. Inflation remains above target. Fed officials are divided, with some advocating patience until more data is available.

With economic data painting a mixed picture, the impact of the recent government shutdown is increasing the uncertainty as several key economic reports will not be issued at all, making that picture even murkier. This mixed—and now missing—economic backdrop seems likely to prompt the Fed to hit the pause button on further rate cuts. As a result, markets may shift focus to January, hoping that clearer data will justify the next move.

The Week Ahead

Investors can be thankful that government collected data has begun streaming in, but they must remain skeptical as the data is now aged and lagging the real economy. Without much of an alternative, this is the information the Federal Reserve will have headed into its next rate setting meeting in December.

Looking Back

With 3 days until the holiday next week, all the economic releases will come out in a condensed period, leaving investors with a lot after a dearth of information for several weeks.

The October and November jobs reports will now be released after the December 10th Federal Reserve meeting, 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Index for October and November may also be delayed to after the meeting.
This leaves investors focusing on The Federal Reserve’s Beige book that comes out next week as the biggest window into what the central bankers are looking into.
Beige book is an anecdotal survey on the economy produced by the central bank.
Retail sales that will be released will be September’s and the Producer Price Index will also be for September.

Budget Time

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is slated to announce the budget for United Kingdom on Wednesday.
The Chancellor faces a £30 Billion annual fiscal deficit, and early indications are that tax hikes will be the method to close the budget gap.
This matters to the markets for several reasons; higher taxes squeezing investors and consumers, the impact it will have on central bank plans for rate cuts, and the size of the bond issuance the U.K. will be required to unload on to the market.

Turkey Time

Thursday is Thanksgiving and markets are closed, Friday however is a half day for the stock market, but the focus tends to be on a different market.

For investment enthusiasts, Friday is the day all focus shifts to consumers and the annual tradition of CNBC reporters broadcasting from shopping malls in New Jersey.
All kidding aside, consumer spending is a significant component of the U.S. economy, and with government shutdown, stubborn inflation, weakening jobs market, and slumping consumer sentiment will the presents under the tree take a hit.

Happy Thanksgiving!

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Founded in 1979, Strategic is a leading investment and wealth management firm managing and advising on total client assets of over $2.5 billion.

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