Resources/Weekly Insights

Volume 15, Edition 11 | April 13 - April 19, 2026

Betting On Upside – Reprise

Doug Walters, CFA

After a brief market pullback and sharp rebound, this week’s Insights revisits the idea of “Betting on Upside” and the behavioral mistakes that can derail long-term plans. It is a reminder that disciplined preparation matters far more than emotional reactions in moments of uncertainty.

Contributed by Doug Walters, David Lemire, Max Berkovich, Matthew Johnson

A few weeks ago, I wrote about “Betting on Upside” at a moment when uncertainty was unusually elevated. Concerns around artificial intelligence, rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East, and a pullback in stocks had many investors understandably uneasy.

Shortly after that piece went out, the market fell another 3 percent. For anxious investors, that move would have felt like validation. Then something familiar happened. The market reversed, and from those lows, stocks climbed roughly 12 percent.

This is not a “we told you so” moment. Markets do not move on our schedule and we certainly do not claim to have a crystal ball. Instead, this is a useful reminder of how costly it can be to react emotionally during periods of stress.

The Urge to Act

This pattern speaks directly to a powerful behavioral bias known as action bias, the urge to do something… anything… when faced with uncertainty, even when doing nothing may be the better decision.

One of the best illustrations of this comes from a well-known study of professional soccer goalkeepers facing penalty kicks. Statistically, goalkeepers would improve their odds by staying centered more often. Shots down the middle are more common than intuition suggests.

Yet keepers almost always dive left or right. The reason is not a lack of skill or information. It is psychological. Conceding a goal after standing still feels worse than conceding one after making a visible effort. Action feels safer than stillness, even when the evidence points the other way.

Different Arena, Same Bias

Investors face a similar challenge, but with an important distinction. The right response to market stress is often not to scramble for a new plan. It is to rely on the one that was already built.

Long before volatility shows up, the real work is done through diversification, thoughtful asset allocation, and a disciplined rebalancing strategy. Those choices are designed precisely for moments like this, when uncertainty rises and emotions run high.

When markets pull back, preparation can pay off. Staying invested can feel uncomfortable. But reacting emotionally in the moment often means undoing the very structure that was put in place to manage risk over time.

Trusting the Plan

The recent decline is a good reminder that outcomes are not driven by perfectly timed decisions under pressure. They are driven by evidence-based decisions made in advance.

Betting on upside does not mean ignoring risk or volatility. It means recognizing that uncertainty is a permanent feature of investing, and that durable plans matter more than emotional reactions. In periods like these, the discipline is not about doing nothing. It is about trusting the work you have already done.

$95 per barrel

The price of oil (Brent Crude) has fallen from its peak of over $118, to around $95 despite continued uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz.

Headline of the Week

Holding Together, for Now

Earlier this year, it looked as though inflation might finally be retreating from the center of the macro narrative. April has continued to challenge that optimism.

The IMF’s latest global outlook made clear that geopolitical risk has moved from background noise to a primary economic variable. Growth is still holding together, but the margin for error is thinner. Energy prices have long been the fastest transmission channel from conflict to the real economy, and they are once again complicating the disinflation story just as central banks hoped to declare progress.

What stands out is not a collapse in activity, but a reordering of risks. The world economy is no longer wrestling with overheating demand, but with supply‑side uncertainty layered on top of already slowing momentum. Inflation pressures may prove temporary, but they arrive at an awkward time: when growth is cooling and policy flexibility is limited.

Markets, for their part, appear willing to extend the benefit of the doubt. Risk assets have taken the headlines in stride, suggesting confidence that the shock remains containable. Policymakers, however, have less room for such assumptions. For central banks, the challenge is no longer just calibrating the final mile of disinflation; it’s managing a landscape where progress can be interrupted without warning.

This twist is not a return to runaway inflation, nor a sudden growth scare. It is a reminder that the path forward is narrowing, and that stability now depends as much on geopolitics as on data.

The Week Ahead

Earnings and retail sales are the dominant headline makers for next week unless politics finds a way to steal headlines.

Resilience

Retail sales in March are expected to rise by 1% from February.

Retail sales are reported in nominal terms, which means the total dollar value of goods sold, which may be impacted by higher costs.
With the Consumer Price Index rising 3.3% year-over-year in March, that might skew total sales.
Even if skewed by higher prices, expanding consumer spending is positive news for the market, as a resilient consumer is a bullish indicator for investors.

Mr. Warsh goes to Washington

The President’s pick to replace the Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh heads to congress for his confirmation hearing.

The hearing will give the market its first gauge on how closely aligned Warsh is to President’s desire for significantly lower rates.
When Warsh previously served as Federal Reserve Governor, he was considered a hawk, which means he preferred higher rates, price stability, and tight monetary policy.

Week Two

Earnings season kicked off with mega banks, but next week we shift focus to the industrial economy.

General Electric, Raytheon, Honeywell, and Boeing are the big ones.
Also, on the docket are Intel, IBM, Procter & Gamble and American Express, but the one that will garner the most attention is Tesla.
Early indications are that results are not what to watch from Tesla’s results, margins and capital expenditures are.
The capital expenditure discussion will revolve around the Terafab, the planned 1-terawatt AI computing facility, with a rumored price tag of a few trillion dollars.

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