Resources/Weekly Insights

Volume 14, Edition 18 | June 2 - June 8, 2025

The Party We Nearly Didn’t Plan

Doug Walters, CFA

What do you do when markets are falling, but you’re planning a celebration? This reflection on uncertainty, evidence, and long-term perspective explains why we nearly canceled our first-ever client appreciation party—and why we’re so glad we didn’t.

Contributed by Doug Walters, David Lemire, Max Berkovich, Matthew Johnson

This week marks a first for us—our inaugural client appreciation party. It’s something we’ve envisioned for years. The Strategic community thrives on collaboration and shared growth, and now, it’s time to celebrate that journey together. Yet just a few months ago, this party almost didn’t happen.

When we first started planning our all-client celebration at the Saranac Biergarten, it was April—and markets were having a rough time. U.S. stocks had pulled back sharply, and uncertainty was everywhere. As we discussed the idea of a celebration, a question kept resurfacing: Is this really the right time to throw a party?

It wasn’t about optics, exactly. It was more of a gut check. Investors were seeing portfolio values decline, headlines were unnerving, and global tensions were flaring. Would a celebration in that moment feel tone-deaf?

We decided to move ahead, not because of the market, but because the relationships we’ve built—with clients, with our community, with each other—deserve to be honored in good times and in challenging ones. If anything, tough times are when clarity and connection matter most.

Now here we are, with the party just days away, and things feel very different. U.S. stocks have rebounded. Gold and international stock markets have been strong contributors. And for most of the portfolios we manage, the year has turned positive.

The contrast between April and now—at least from a market perspective—is striking, and could tempt one to ponder “if only I had known.” The truth is, no one did know. Not then. Not now. And trying to build a process (or plan a party for that matter) around prediction—around guessing where the market is headed next—is a fragile foundation.

Instead, we build around preparation. Around diversification. Around the evidence that tells us while we can’t know what the next few months will bring, owning a thoughtfully constructed portfolio over time is a resilient way forward.

The temptation to extrapolate the present—whether in moments of fear or euphoria—is deeply human. But investing well means resisting that impulse. It means acknowledging that markets will surprise us, often in both directions, and that our real job is to be ready when they do.

So, this Thursday, we’ll raise a glass not to the market, but to the people who trust us to navigate it with discipline and perspective. The party wasn’t planned because we thought markets would rebound. It was planned because, regardless of markets, the lifetime partnerships within the Strategic community are worth celebrating.

139,000

Non-farm payrolls (a notoriously volatile metric) came in ahead of the 130,000 consensus expectation. The unemployment rate remained steady (month-on-month) at 4.2% and wage inflation also remained unchanged at 3.9% (notably still higher than consumer price inflation).

Headline of the Week

Cautious Hiring, Revisions Hint at Weakness

Not exactly as exciting a headline as “Trump vs. Musk: The Mother of All Tweet Storms” but just can’t bring myself to click on any of that drama. Rather, stick with this month’s employment report, which beat expectations but was hardly a sign of robust strength. Plus, previous months’ figures were revised lower. Uncertainty regarding tariffs, regulation, spending, and economic direction all conspired to inject caution into business hiring plans. The unemployment rate remained steady, and the market seems content that it was not a worse number. The reports are not seen as moving the Fed out of its wait and see mode, despite another mini-tweet storm.

But once again, this month’s report might not reflect the full impact of previous governmental moves let alone the impact of any moves once the veil of uncertainty is lifted.

The Week Ahead

Following a stretch of mixed economic signals, investors will have their eyes focused on the data releases next week. Central banks remain in sharp focus, particularly as the Federal Reserve’s rate path continues to diverge from that of other major economies. Meanwhile, earnings from Oracle and Adobe will test the resilience of the tech sector amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Economics

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May CPI data. Economists expect Core CPI (excluding food and energy) to rise 0.3%, slightly above April’s 0.2% increase, potentially signaling persistent inflationary pressures.

U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)

PPI will provide insight into upstream inflation trends, resulting from tariffs, which could eventually be passed on to consumers.

Global Indicators

Japan and the United Kingdom will release updated GDP figures, offering a snapshot of economic momentum.
China and the UK will also publish trade and industrial production data, key indicators of manufacturing strength and global demand.

Earnings

June is typically a quieter month for earnings, ahead of the Q2 reporting season ramping up in July. However, this week features two major players in AI and cloud computing:

Oracle (Wednesday, after market close)

Oracle’s results will be closely watched for continued momentum in its cloud infrastructure segment, which is projected to grow by nearly 20%. Investors will also look for updates on AI integration and enterprise software demand

Adobe (Thursday, after market close):

Adobe’s focus will be on subscription growth and user engagement, particularly within its suite of AI-powered tools like Firefly and generative design features. Analysts will also be looking for performance in their Document Cloud and Digital Experience segments.

About Strategic

Founded in 1979, Strategic is a leading investment and wealth management firm managing and advising on total client assets of over $2 billion.

Overview

Disclosures

Strategic Financial Services, Inc. is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as an Investment Advisor. The term “registered” signifies compliance with regulatory requirements and does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

The information provided on our website, including weekly market commentaries, financial planning articles, and other educational resources, is intended solely for educational purposes. It is designed to offer insights into financial planning and investment management, aiming to enhance understanding of financial concepts, strategies, and market trends. This content should not be interpreted as personalized investment advice or a recommendation for any specific strategy, financial planning approach, or investment product. Financial decisions are deeply personal and should be made considering the individual’s specific circumstances, goals, and risk tolerance. We recommend consulting with a professional financial advisor for personalized advice.

Please be aware that Strategic Financial Services, Inc. does not provide legal or tax advice. The content on this website is not intended to be used as such or as a substitute for legal or tax advice from a licensed professional. We advise seeking guidance from qualified legal and tax advisors regarding these matters.
Investment Risks and Portfolio Management.

The discussion of any investments on this website is for illustrative purposes only and provides no guarantee that the advisor will make any investments with the same or similar characteristics as those presented. The investments identified and described herein do not represent all the investments purchased or sold for client accounts. The selection of representative investments to discuss is based on various factors, including recent company news or earnings releases.

It should not be assumed that any investments discussed were or will be profitable. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. There is no assurance that investments mentioned will remain in client accounts at the time you view this information.

When index returns are mentioned on this site, they are provided as a general indicator of market conditions and are not representative of any client’s portfolio performance. Indices are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. Therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

While index returns are used as a framework to report on general market conditions, they should not be construed as an indicator of future performance of any specific investment or portfolio. Discussion of index returns is intended to provide context and insight, not to suggest that clients will achieve similar results. Each client’s portfolio is managed according to their specific investment goals and financial situation.

The opinions and any forward-looking statements expressed in the articles and videos featured in our resource center are as of the date of publication. These statements are based on current laws, regulations, market conditions, and other relevant factors, including third-party data. Given the dynamic nature of financial and regulatory environments, as well as potential changes in market conditions or economic circumstances, the information provided may become outdated or may no longer be accurate.
We rely on third-party data to form our opinions and projections, which means that these are subject to the same uncertainties that affect all data-dependent analyses. As such, we advise readers to exercise caution and not rely solely on the statements made herein for making financial decisions. It is recommended that investors consult with a professional advisor who can help assess the relevance and accuracy of the content in light of the current economic climate and personal financial situation.

Our website contains links to third-party websites as a convenience to our users. Strategic Financial Services, Inc. does not control, endorse, or guarantee the content found on such sites. We are not responsible for the accuracy, legality, or content of the external site or for that of subsequent links.
Contact the external site for answers to questions regarding its content.
The inclusion of any link does not imply our endorsement of the site, nor does it imply any association with its operators. Use of any such linked website is at the user’s own risk.