Resources/Weekly Insights

Volume 14, Edition 14 | May 4 - May 10, 2025

Mom’s Timeless Wisdom for Your Portfolio

Doug Walters, CFA

As we celebrate mom this weekend, give her an extra hug or word of thanks for all the insightful investing advice she shared over the years. You may not have seen it that way at the time, but it was there. Many of her timeless one-liners weren’t just for keeping you out of trouble on the playground — they can help keep you out of trouble in your portfolio, too.

Contributed by Doug Walters, David Lemire, Max Berkovich, Matthew Johnson

As we celebrate mom this weekend, give her an extra hug or word of thanks for all the insightful investing advice she shared over the years. You may not have seen it that way at the time, but it was there. Many of her timeless one-liners weren’t just for keeping you out of trouble on the playground — they can help keep you out of trouble in your portfolio, too.

Consider some of mom’s greatest hits:

“Don’t put all your eggs in one basket” → Diversification
“Money doesn’t grow on trees” → The power of compounding and disciplined saving
“Finish what you start” → Stay the course in volatile markets
“If it looks too good to be true, it probably is” → Be wary of speculative fads
“A penny saved is a penny earned” → The importance regular contributions

But if there’s one piece of mom-wisdom that stands tallest in the investing world, it’s this: “Patience is a virtue.”

The Art of Doing Nothing

This week I attended the CFA Live conference in Chicago. One comment from a prominent portfolio manager that resonated with me was the difficulty of doing nothing. Day in and day out our team analyzes the market and our holdings, and the most common conclusion is… drumroll please… the portfolios are good – no action needed. While somewhat unsatisfying, doing nothing is a powerful conclusion, and more often than not, the right one.

Markets are masters at testing the patience of the common investor. In an age of nonstop headlines, flashing tickers, and constant notifications, the temptation to act — to do something — can be overwhelming. Because of action bias, the most challenging decision is to do nothing at all, but research shows it can also be the most rewarding. Overtrading is directly correlated to lower returns.

This year has been particularly challenging for the impatient investor. The economic and geopolitical headlines have been sensational. Yet, for those with a well-diversified portfolio, staying the course and watching for opportunities to rebalance has paid dividends (literally and figuratively).

Thoughtful Action

But patience doesn’t mean neglect. Thoughtful changes based on facts are part of evidence-based investing. Resisting the urge to constantly tweak or chase headlines? That’s where long-term success often lies.

Mom had some great investing advice, but she did not get it all exactly right. She used to say, “You’ll understand when you’re older.” When it comes to investing, we beg to differ — you’re never too young to start. In fact, the earlier, the better. We are sure mom would approve.

“The big money is not in the buying and selling… but in the waiting.” – Charlie Munger

Headline of the Week

Wait and See (x2)

The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting managed to avoid any surprises as they remain in wait and see mode. Risks to both mandates seem to have moved higher but the data continues to paint a conflicting picture. Higher unemployment and higher inflation both seem to be threatening, but the Fed feels comfortable waiting for more clarity on tariffs’ impact on the economy.

Tariff clarity also is in wait and see mode. This weekend sees China and the US meeting face to face to start some type of process for resolving the tariff issue. However, the how, when, or even why an agreement is found remain open questions. And while the US – UK announcement was received warmly, the China issue could benefit from a bit more specificity and substance if it is to shift either wait and see mindset.

The Week Ahead

With peak earnings season behind us and the May interest rate decision made; economic data takes center stage. Inflation reports at home and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in two major economies are the major ones.

Consumer Focus

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) coupled with Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are the main macro data points to watch.

CPI, which measures consumer level inflation, is expected to tick up by 0.3% month over month, this is after a slight decline in March.

Inflation watchers are going to look for any clues that tariff related inflation is here, but it may still be a little early for any major impact, however there is an export import price index on Friday that may be useful.

The retail sales and consumer sentiment indices will take a back seat to Wal-Mart’s earnings as a reading on spending.
Walmart reports on Thursday and as the largest retailer by revenue will offer a better view of spending patterns than survey-based indexes.
Revenue for the goliath is estimated at $166 billion in the quarter, and about $681 billion for the full year.

Rearview Mirror

First quarter GDP from the European Union and United Kingdom are out next week.

The U.K. is expected to have decent economic expansion in the quarter. The data is tipped by a healthy surge in February’s monthly number, but even if March was not that great it should still be a good start to the year.
The European economy is also expected to have grown in the 1st quarter.
With all the news focused on tariffs, markets are not expected to focus too much on what happened in the first three months of the year but instead look forward to trade deal developments and the new global trade regime.

Happy Mother’s Day!

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