Resources/Weekly Insights

Volume 14, Edition 39 | December 15 - December 22, 2025

The Gift of Investing Principles

Doug Walters, CFA

Looking for holiday investing inspiration? Our latest Insights article unwraps five fun, evidence-based resolutions—each rooted in our guiding principles. From patience to behavior, discover how small, smart decisions can help your portfolio thrive. Happy holidays from all of us at Strategic!

Contributed by Doug Walters, David Lemire, Max Berkovich, Matthew Johnson

The holidays are here, and while I can’t promise snow (or no snow if you prefer), I can promise a little fun and a lot of purpose. This year, let’s trade market predictions for resolutions that actually stick—each one inspired by our guiding principles (and maybe a little holiday cheer).

Patience: Wait for the Cookies to Bake

Ever tried to rush a batch of cookies? Not good. The same goes for investing. Markets reward patience. This year, resolve to let your portfolio “bake”—no peeking, no panic-selling, just trust in the process.

Diversification: Don’t Put All Your Gifts in One Stocking

Santa wouldn’t put all the toys in one stocking, and neither should you put all your investments in one basket. Spread the cheer (and your risk) across stocks, bonds, and gold. Diversification is the only free lunch—and the best holiday buffet.

Factors: Pick the Best Ingredients

Grandma’s secret recipe? Only the best ingredients. In your portfolio, that means tilting toward high quality, good value, small size, and momentum. These “factors” have a historical track record of outperformance—so resolve to keep them at the core of your strategy.

Rebalancing: Deck the Halls, Again, and Again

Just as you keep your home looking festive from season to season, rebalancing keeps your portfolio looking its best. Don’t wait for year end—opportunistically buy low and sell high whenever the market gives you a chance.

Behavior: Don’t Let Emotions Crash Your Sleigh

It’s easy to feel left out when you see others chasing the latest market trend—just like watching that neighbor who one-upped you on their lights display. But chasing fads rarely ends well. This year, resolve to stick to your plan and let evidence—not FOMO—guide your journey. Your portfolio will thank you for staying on course.

Wrapping It Up

In all we have seven guiding principles which define our approach to evidence-based investing. It is not about big swings or wild predictions that only pay off when luck is on your side. It’s about a series of smart, principled decisions—each one a little gift to your future self. Here’s to a season of joy, gratitude, and portfolios built to last. Happy holidays from all of us at Strategic!

See our website for more information about our approach and guiding principles.

2.7%

CPI inflation fell

As we discuss below, November inflation came in lower than the 3.1% expected after skipping a month due to the shutdown.

Headline of the Week

Inflation’s and Employment’s Complicated Relationship

This week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report provided fresh yet muddied perspective on inflation. The government shutdown continues to cast a shadow over interpretability of the report, but at least something was published. Both headline and core inflation numbers showed downward trends, but data quality remains an issue.

There is a growing school of thought that views the forces on inflation and employment as commingling to a greater extent. Tariffs are the poster child for this evolving hypothesis. Tariffs were largely viewed as inflationary, but the steadying inflation picture is raising doubts. These doubts are not an endorsement for tariffs but point to the shifts underway.

Companies faced with tariffs have many means to deal with them, raising prices is only one. Reduced hiring is seen as another, and increasingly, a more prevalent coping mechanism. Layoffs do not appear to be at levels consistent with materially higher unemployment, but layoffs coupled with meaningful and broad hiring freezes could exert more upward pressure on unemployment rates.

Markets generally applaud anything that boosts the odds of rate cuts. But this changing inflation and employment dynamic could start to force a re-think. Markets are still riding the AI wave, but more questions are being raised on that front too (a topic discussed previously and most likely again soon).

The Week Ahead

A holiday shortened week should be uneventful, however, we do get a big Gross Domestic Product Report (GDP) for the third quarter.

Deal-ayed!

Getting a GDP print for the third quarter, with only a few days left in the fourth, would be a non-event altogether, but after the government shut-down driven delay, some information is better than none.

Expectations are for another 3%+ expansion on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
Economists will be asking if we needed to trim rates with the economy growing at a healthy pace especially after another inflation report, that showed less inflationary pressure.
Most experts expect that technology investment will be the key driver of the headline number, masking weaknesses in other parts of the economy.
Consumer spending is also expected to be a positive driver, though disparity between high income households versus everyone else, will also be scrutinized.
Right now, expectations are for a more reasonable 1% expansion for the 4th quarter, but here too it is not a clear message, as the government shutdown is expected to be a highly disruptive event.

‘Tis the season

Markets are closed on Thursday for the holiday, and there is an early closing on Wednesday.

Season’s Greetings!

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