The Hot Tip You Didn’t Want

Doug Walters, CFA

Forget the hot tips. Ask your advisor what they’re invested in. If they’re not eating their own cooking, you deserve to know why.

Contributed by Doug Walters, David Lemire, Max Berkovich, Matthew Johnson

Every so often, someone asks me if I have any “hot tips.” A stock about to pop, a new crypto coin ready to take off. They’re usually surprised—and always a little disappointed—when I say no. But the truth is, I do have a hot tip… it’s just not the one they’re hoping to hear.

It’s natural to want a quick win. We’re surrounded by stories of people who hit it big. But for every one of those stories, there are hundreds more that don’t get told—people who got in too late, picked the wrong horse, or didn’t know when to get out. Generally, if you’re hearing hype about a “can’t lose” opportunity, that ship has already sailed.

So, what’s my hot tip? Where am I investing my own money? If you’re a regular reader of Insights, you already know the answer: a diversified, evidence-based portfolio. See… I told you you’d be disappointed.

As Chief Investment Officer, I suppose that makes me the cook in our investment kitchen. And as a Strategic client, I’m eating my own cooking every day. Why wouldn’t I? Our strategies are the culmination of our best thinking—grounded in evidence, built for the long term.

It’s a question every investor should ask their advisor: What are you personally invested in? If the answer doesn’t match what they’re recommending to you, they better have a very good reason why. It’s one of the simplest and most effective ways to vet an advisor.

This question is especially relevant today, as more firms promote access to private equity and credit, crypto, and other alternatives. We’ve written before about the risks—illiquidity, complexity, and behavioral traps that can quietly erode returns. Are the advisors of these firms putting their money where their mouth is? I certainly wouldn’t.

At Strategic, we believe in transparency and shared conviction. Our portfolios are built on evidence, not hype. I invest alongside our clients, using the same strategies we recommend. My advice? Forget the hot tips. Focus on building lasting wealth.

22,000 jobs created

Non-farm payrolls, a measure of the strength of the job market, came in weaker than expected on Friday. Analysts were expecting +77K. Small-cap stocks, with their higher debt burden, outperformed on the news.

Headline of the Week

Continued Jobs Weakness, Fed’s Balancing Act Gets Harder

Friday’s jobs report confirmed what recent data suggested: the labor market is losing steam. The headline number missed expectations, and revisions painted a more mixed picture. While July’s figure was revised higher, June slipped into negative territory. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, its highest since 2021. The Covid “reopening” saw unemployment hit a multi-year low near 3.4%, but since then the rate has been moving higher. The jobs trend points to considerable slowing in hiring, though employers remain hesitant to cut staff.

For the Federal Reserve, this report could shift the rate cut conversation from “if” to “how much.” The Fed’s dual mandate—price stability and maximum employment—remains conflicted. Inflation is still above target and could climb further if tariff pass-through accelerates, yet the job market is flashing warning signs.

Whether the Fed opts for a modest trim or a bolder cut, the message is clear: the era of patience is over. An older question could resurface: can the Fed stick the landing—cushioning a cooling labor market without reigniting inflation?

The Week Ahead

All eyes are on interest rates, in Europe on the central bank rate decision and at home on the last inflation report before the rate setting meeting on the 17th.

Hold tight!

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates on hold on Thursday.

Investors are not expecting a rate cut from the ECB until March of 2026. Obviously, things can change between now and then.
The inflation rate ticked up in August in the Eurozone, but to just a 2.1% annualized number.
The ECB was accused of being “deliberately uninformative” about the future path of rates after the last decision. Will they continue that this time?

It’s the price we pay…

As if Thursday needed more development, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the other major inflation gauge, will be released for August as well.

CPI measures inflation the consumer feels at the register.
It is also important to keep in mind that only 19% of this index is comprised of tariff impacted goods, while housing is a third. Data indicates that rents have fallen.
Economists are penciling in a monthly bump in inflation of 0.3%, which would be a faster pace than 0.2% in July.
Core-CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, however, is expected to be unchanged in August.
On Friday, the consumer confidence report may also show purchasing behavior hindered by tariff anxiety.
Only a sharp spike in August inflation could change what everyone expects as a rate cut the following week.

About Strategic

Founded in 1979, Strategic is a leading investment and wealth management firm managing and advising on total client assets of over $2.5 billion.

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